Ultrasound-Guided Verteporfin Photodynamic Therapy for the Treatment of Unresectable Solid Pancreatic Tumors or Advanced Pancreatic Cancer, VERTPAC-02 Study

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 18% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-09-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerbreastsurgerylocallyadvanced
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluationresponsegrouplungtreatment with
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 732 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 4.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Ultrasound-Guided Photodynamic Therapy With Photofrin & Gemcitabine for Patients With Locally Advanced Pancreatic Cancer NCT01770132 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• Phase I - Escalating Dose Study of siG12D LODER (Local Drug EluteR) in Patients With Locally Advanced Adenocarcinoma of the Pancreas, and a Single Dose Study of siG12D LODER (Local Drug EluteR) in Patients With Non-operable Adenocarcinoma of the Pancreas NCT01188785 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• Endobronchial Ultrasound Guided Interstitial Photodynamic Therapy in Treating Patients With Locally Advanced Lung Cancer NCT03735095 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• PEGPH20, Gemicitabine and Nab-Paclitaxel for Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma NCT02487277 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy and Safety of BC-819 and Gemcitabine in Patients With Locally Advanced Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma NCT01413087 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.