A Study to Evaluate the Effect of Dapagliflozin on Renal Outcomes and Cardiovascular Mortality in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (181 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-06-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: hearttherapychronictransplantationtime of
  Phrases that lowered it: the effecteffect ofevaluate theto evaluatecardiovascular
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 130 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1423 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 136 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 2717 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Vascular Impact of Dapagliflozin in CKD Patients (DAPAVASC) NCT04930549 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• SGLT2 Inhibitors in Non-Diabetic CKD: Effects on Vascular Calcification and Anemia NCT07344922 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Effect of Dapagliflozin on Blood Glucose Level and Renal Safety in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes NCT02413398 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Effect of Dapagliflozin With and Without Saxagliptin on Albuminuria, and to Investigate the Effect of Dapagliflozin and Saxagliptin on HbA1c in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes and CKD NCT02547935 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• Effects of Dapagliflozin on Kidney Function (Glomerular Filtration Rate) in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes NCT00976495 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.