Study to Evaluate the Effect of Voxelotor Administered Orally to Patients With Sickle Cell Disease (GBT_HOPE)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (139 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-10-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placebodouble blindcontrolleddialysischronic
  Phrases that lowered it: participantspatientscellupperlimit of
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1627 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 152 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Assessing Physical Function in Sickle Cell Patients Taking Voxelotor NCT06023199 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Resolution of Sickle Cell Leg Ulcers With Voxelotor NCT05561140 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials terminated
• Dose Escalation Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, PK and PD of Voxelotor in Patients With SCD NCT04247594 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials terminated
• Study to Evaluate the Effect of GBT440 on TCD in Pediatrics With Sickle Cell Disease NCT04218084 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials terminated
• Study to Assess the Effect of Long-term Treatment With Voxelotor in Participants Who Have Completed Treatment in Study GBT440-031 NCT03573882 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.