Vitamin D and Residual Beta-Cell Function in Type 1 Diabetes
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 10% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (48 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-04-20, after 2017-10-19 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-04-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 55.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientsngsubjects withpresencetoxicity
Phrases that lowered it: insulintype diabetesmonthsmalefemale -
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 4.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 160142 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 10 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 21 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 160142 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 35614 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 55.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 4.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic, immunology, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ergocalciferol, vitamin d
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Prevalence of Vitamin D Deficiency in Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus and Effect of Supplementation on Insulin Requirements NCT01029392 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Effects of Treating Vitamin D Deficiency in Poorly Controlled Type 2 Diabetes NCT01855321 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- Vitamin D for Established Type 2 Diabetes (DDM2) NCT01736865 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
- Metabolic Effects of Vitamin D in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes NCT00812578 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
- Does Vitamin D Reduce Risk of Developing Type II DM in High Risk Individuals NCT01170468 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.