Comparison of TAK-438 (Vonoprazan) to Lansoprazole in the Treatment of Duodenal Ulcer Participants With or Without Helicobacter Pylori Infection

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (213 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-07-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationtherapymalignancycarcinomauln
  Phrases that lowered it: participantvisithas historyevaluate theto evaluate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 78 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 79.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 68612 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 391 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 9861 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Comparison of TAK-438 (Vonoprazan) to Lansoprazole in the Treatment of Gastric Ulcer Participants With or Without Helicobacter Pylori Infection NCT03050307 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of TAK-438 Compared to AG-1749 (Lansoprazole) in the Treatment of Duodenal Ulcer NCT01452724 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• A Unblinded Study of TAK-438 (20 mg) for Prevention of Recurrence of Gastric or Duodenal Ulcer During Long-Term Non-Steroid Anti-Inflammatory Drug (NSAID) Therapy NCT01568385 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Vonoprazan Compared to Lansoprazole in the Maintenance Treatment of Erosive Esophagitis NCT02388737 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• Efficacy of TAK-438, Amoxicillin and Clarithromycin in the First Line Eradication of H. Pylori NCT01505127 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.