A Single Ascending Dose Study of Safety and Tolerability of STA363 Compared to Placebo in 15 Patients With Chronic Discogenic Low Back Pain
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-08-29, after 2017-03-27 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-08-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: ascendinggradethe patientplaceboiv
Phrases that lowered it: singleinvestigatedrugsbodyallergy -
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 20 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 60 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study Investigating STA363 Compared to Placebo in Patients With Chronic Discogenic Low Back Pain NCT04673461 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- STA363 in the Treatment of Lumbar Disc Herniation NCT06022263 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy of SX600 Administered by Lumbosacral Transforaminal Epidural Injection for Radicular Pain NCT03952377 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials terminated
- Study to Evaluate the Safety and Preliminary Efficacy of IDCT, a Treatment for Symptomatic Lumbar Disc Degeneration NCT03955315 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
- A Two-part Proof-of-Concept Study Assessing the Safety and Efficacy of LAT8881 in Lumbar Radicular Pain NCT05298306 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.