Two Doses of Multimeric-001 (M-001) Followed by Influenza Vaccine
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 3% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (122 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-01-14, after 2018-04-09 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-01-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: diagnosisphase iisymptomscellprior
Phrases that lowered it: vaccinevaccinationinfluenzaimmunogenicityinactivated -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.6% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 107 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 1168 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, psychiatry: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 49 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1168 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 6.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 107 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- H5N8 Mix and Match With or Without AS03 or MF59 in Healthy Adults NCT02624219 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- 2017 A/H7N9 IIV Revaccination NCT03738241 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- Safety/Efficacy Study of Seqirus A/H7N9 IIV With or Without MF59(R) Adjuvant to Prevent Avian Influenza NCT03682120 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- H5N8 Mix and Match With or Without AS03 or MF59 in Healthy Adults: Immunology NCT03014310 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- H3N2 M2SR in Pediatric Population NCT03553940 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.