Infusion of Umbilical Cord Versus Bone Marrow Derived Mesenchymal Stem Cells to Evaluate Cytokine Suppression.
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 26% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (56 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2021-02-11, after 2018-04-12 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-02-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: subjectssubjectchronickidney diseasegreater than
Phrases that lowered it: evaluatepatientsmmadvancedmg -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 50% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Maximum age: 95 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 4 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 7 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 21 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 95 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 4 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 50% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Allogeneic Mesenchymal Human Stem Cells Infusion Therapy for Endothelial DySfunctiOn in Diabetic Subjects NCT02886884 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
- Bone Marrow-Derived Mesenchymal Stem Cell Therapy for Chronic Kidney Disease NCT05362786 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
- Mesenchymal Stem/Stromal Cell Therapy in the Treatment of Frailty NCT04919135 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
- Allogeneic Mesenchymal Human Stem Cell Infusion Therapy for Endothelial DySfunctiOn in Diabetic Subjects With Symptomatic Ischemic Heart Disease. (ACESO-IHD) NCT04776239 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
- MSC and MC in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT01719640 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.