Imaging the HIV Reservoir
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 7% of the time (106 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-04-01, after 2018-09-18 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-04-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: subjectuseinvestigational drugriskparticipation
Phrases that lowered it: ulncopies mlvaccinecounthiv infected -
Collaborators: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: diagnostic (lowers risk) · Design
-
Design: sequential (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- diagnostic (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 5 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 49 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Therapeutic Vaccine for HIV NCT01859325 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
- 10E8.4/iMab Bispecific Antibody in HIV-uninfected and HIV-infected Adults NCT03875209 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- Safety and Virologic Effect of a Human Monoclonal Antibody (VRC01) Administered Intravenously to Adults During Early Acute HIV Infection NCT02591420 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
- LRAs United as a Novel Anti-HIV Strategy. NCT03525730 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
- Combination Therapy With 3BNC117 and 10-1074 in HIV-Infected Individuals NCT03571204 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.