Pembrolizumab, Radiotherapy, and Chemotherapy in Neoadjuvant Treatment of Malignant Esophago-gastric Diseases (PROCEED)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 29% for any early termination, 15% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-11-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: therapycancersubjectneoadjuvantchemotherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluateinfluenzavaccineand safetyefficacy and
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 165 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 31.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 603 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 78.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 7469 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Preoperative Chemoradiotherapy and MK-3475 for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma (ACTS-29) NCT02844075 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• Adjuvant Pembrolizumab for Patients With Locally Advanced Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma at High Risk of Recurrence NCT03322267 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Perioperative Chemo and Pembrolizumab in Gastric Cancer NCT02918162 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) Plus Chemotherapy Versus Placebo Plus Chemotherapy in Participants With Gastric or Gastroesophageal Junction (GEJ) Adenocarcinoma (MK-3475-585/KEYNOTE-585) NCT03221426 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• Pembrolizumab + Radiation for Locally Adv SCC of the Head and Neck (SCCHN) Not Eligible Cisplatin NCT02609503 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.