A Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Combination With Etoposide/Platinum (Cisplatin or Carboplatin) for Participants With Extensive Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer (MK-3475-604/KEYNOTE-604)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-09-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellstagecancersmallcarcinoma
  Phrases that lowered it: first dosejointof studystudy treatmentdays
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 103 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 16059 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1185 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 94362 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pembrolizumab in Untreated Extensive SCLC NCT02580994 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• Study of Pemetrexed+Platinum Chemotherapy With or Without Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Participants With First Line Metastatic Nonsquamous Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (MK-3475-189/KEYNOTE-189) NCT02578680 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• MK-3475 as Maintenance Therapy in Extensive Stage SCLC NCT02359019 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• A Study of Carboplatin-Paclitaxel/Nab-Paclitaxel Chemotherapy With or Without Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Adults With First Line Metastatic Squamous Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (MK-3475-407/KEYNOTE-407) NCT02775435 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Study of Pembrolizumab and Chemotherapy With or Without Radiation in Small Cell Lung Cancer (SCLC) NCT02934503 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.