A Randomized, Double-blind Controlled Study Comparing LCZ696 to Medical Therapy for Comorbidities in HFpEF Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-10-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: failurehearttransplantfractionejection
  Phrases that lowered it: visitand safetyscreeninghistorymmhg
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 174 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1027 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 138393 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 45 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 72.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 26784 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• LCZ696 Compared to Valsartan in Patients With Chronic Heart Failure and Preserved Left-ventricular Ejection Fraction NCT00887588 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• Study of Efficacy and Safety of LCZ696 in Japanese Patients With Chronic Heart Failure and Reduced Ejection Fraction NCT02468232 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• This Study Will Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of LCZ696 Compared to Enalapril on Morbidity and Mortality of Patients With Chronic Heart Failure NCT01035255 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy and Safety of LCZ696 Compared to Valsartan, on Morbidity and Mortality in Heart Failure Patients With Preserved Ejection Fraction NCT01920711 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• A Study of LY3540378 in Participants With Worsening Chronic Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction (HFpEF) NCT05592275 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.