Two Strategies of Primary Prophylaxis of Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis in Severe Cirrhotic Patients With Ascites

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (313 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-03-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationsevereheartpatients whostage
  Phrases that lowered it: monthperiodyears ofof agetrial
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 66.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 30 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 6882 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Rifaximin and Norfloxacin for Prevention of SBP in Adults With Decompensated Cirrhosis NCT03695705 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• Rifaximin as a Prophylaxis of Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis in Comparison With Ciprofloxacin NCT06234046 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• VSL#3 and Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis NCT01701297 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy of the Combination of Simvastatin Plus Rifaximin in Patients With Decompensated Cirrhosis to Prevent ACLF Development NCT03780673 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Albumin Administration in Cirrhotic Patients With Bacterial Infection and a Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome Unrelated to Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis NCT01359813 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.