Extension Study of NT-501 Ciliary Neurotrophic Factor (CNTF) Implant for Macular Telangiectasia (MacTel)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-05-11, after 2017-05-12 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-05-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 20% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
-
Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: eyesubjectsimplantedeligibleprovide
Phrases that lowered it: participantconducted inefficacywas conductedreceived -
Sponsor's past trials: 5 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 21 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 5 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 20% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Phase 2 Multicenter Randomized Clinical Trial of CNTF for MacTel NCT01949324 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
- Ciliary Neurotrophic Factor (CNTF) Safety Trial in Patients With Macular Telangiectasia (Mactel) NCT01327911 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- NT-501 CNTF Implant for Ischemic Optic Neuropathy: Safety, Neuroprotection and Neuroenhancement NCT01411657 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
- NT-501 CNTF Implant for Glaucoma: Safety, Neuroprotection and Neuroenhancement NCT01408472 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
- Study of the Intravitreal Implantation of NT-503-3 Encapsulated Cell Technology (ECT) for the Treatment of Recurrent Choroidal Neovascularization (CNV) Secondary to Age-related Macular Degeneration (AMD) NCT02228304 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.