Ipatasertib Plus Abiraterone Plus Prednisone/Prednisolone, Relative to Placebo Plus Abiraterone Plus Prednisone/Prednisolone in Adult Male Patients With Metastatic Castrate-Resistant Prostate Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-04-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ventricularmriheartother protocolcarcinoma
  Phrases that lowered it: days beforebowelprostatedaycolitis
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 139 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 78.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 235715 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 958 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 41180 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Biomarker Analysis of Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer Undergoing Bipolar Androgen Therapy NCT04424654 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Genetic and Molecular Mechanisms in Assessing Response in Patients With Prostate Cancer Receiving Enzalutamide Therapy NCT02099864 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Abiraterone Prednisone and Hormonal Therapy Before and During Radiation Therapy in Localized Prostate Cancer NCT01023061 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• TAVT-45 (Abiraterone Acetate) Granules in Patients With Prostate Cancer NCT04887506 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• Denosumab in Combination With Enzalutamide in Progressive Metastatic Castrate-resistant Prostate Cancer and Bone Metastases. NCT03869762 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.