A Phase II Study of SGI-110 in Philadelphia-Negative Myeloproliferative Neoplasms

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 29% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 30% of the time (107 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: leukemiawomencellchemotherapyrisk
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsupperopenindividualslabel
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 23.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 38 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 158 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase II Trial of SGI-110 in Patients With IPSS High and Int 2 Myelodysplastic Syndrome, Acute Myeloid Leukemia With 20-30% Marrow Blasts or Chronic Myelomonocytic Leukemia Type 2 Not Responding to Azacitidine or Decitabine After at Least 6 Courses or Relapsing After a Response NCT02197676 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Guadecitabine in Treating Patients With Higher-Risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes NCT02131597 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Simtuzumab in Adults With Primary, Post Polycythemia Vera or Post Essential Thrombocythemia Myelofibrosis NCT01369498 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• A Phase 1, Open Label Study of Intravenous GSK3745417 to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, Pharmacodynamics and Determine RP2D & Schedule in Participants With Relapsed or Refractory Myeloid Malignancies Including AML and HR MDS NCT05424380 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials terminated
• Safety Study Evaluating Twice-Daily Administration of Momelotinib in Primary Myelofibrosis or Post-Polycythemia Vera or Post-Essential Thrombocythemia Myelofibrosis NCT01423058 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.