A Phase 1/2 Trial of Trametinib and Erlotinib in Patients With EGFR-Mutant Lung Adenocarcinomas and Acquired Resistance to Erlotinib

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 16% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-12-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartstartingcardiaculnto determine
  Phrases that lowered it: resistancecombinationerlotiniboldcriteria patients
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 59.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 104 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 445 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase 1/2 Study of the Safety and Efficacy of Rociletinib in Combination With Trametinib in Patients With mEGFR-positive Advanced or Metastatic Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02580708 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
• Tivantinib Plus Erlotinib Versus Placebo Plus Erlotinib for the Treatment of Non-squamous, Non-small-cell Lung Cancer NCT01244191 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated
• Erlotinib Plus Tivantinib (ARQ 197) Versus Single Agent Chemotherapy in Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT01395758 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Erlotinib and AT-101 in Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) Patients With Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Activating Mutations NCT00988169 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
• Combination of Erlotinib and Bevacizumab as Second-line Treatment in Patients With Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT00749567 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.