Adjuvant Capecitabine vs Gemcitabine Plus Cisplatin in Resected Extrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-11-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: carcinomapatientresectioncancerchemotherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: aminotransferasejoint19patients withdaily
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 27.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 39 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 19 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 87931 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 10638 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 128 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Gemcitabine as an Adjuvant Treatment for Cholangiocarcinoma After Surgical Resection NCT01043172 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• S0809: Capecitabine, Gemcitabine, and RT in Patients w/Cholangiocarcinoma of the Gallbladder or Bile Duct NCT00789958 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Adjuvant Cisplatin Plus Gemcitabine in Operable Cholangiocellular Carcinoma. NCT01073839 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• Gemcitabine, Cisplatin, and Nab-Paclitaxel Before Surgery in Patients With High-Risk Liver Bile Duct Cancer NCT03579771 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Intra-hepatic Chemotherapy in Patient With Non-resectable Liver Metastases From Cholangiocarcinoma NCT01247337 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.