Intranasal Insulin for the Treatment of HAND
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (121 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2020-10-16, after 2017-08-01 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “safety”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-10-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: braincellscancerevidencetumor
Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantdisorderthe studydrug -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 124 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: 69 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 69 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 478 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 13.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 124 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, psychiatry, infectious disease, immunology, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Intranasal Treatment of HIV-associated Neurocognitive Disorders NCT03277222 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials terminated
- Maraviroc and NeuroAIDS Pathogenesis NCT02159027 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- Study of Paroxetine and Fluconazole for the Treatment of HIV Associated Neurocognitive Disorder NCT01354314 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
- Anakinra, A Recombinant Human IL-1 Receptor Antagonist for Neuroinflammation in HIV-1 Infection NCT02527460 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials terminated
- Therapeutic Vaccine for HIV NCT01859325 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.