A 6-week Dose Ranging Study of CHF 5259 pMDI in Subjects With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-06-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: surgerydiseasereceptorpulmonarycopd
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmathe efficacysafety ofsubjectsrhinitis
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: other (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 2.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 41.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 19 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study Comparing Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of the Fixed Dose Triple Combination CHF 5993 With the Fixed Dose Dual Combination CHF 1535 in Subjects With COPD NCT04320342 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate Efficacy/Safety of 4 Doses of CHF5259 Via Dry Powder Inhaler (DPI) in Patients With COPD NCT02680197 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A 12-week Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Umeclidinium Compared With Tiotropium in Subjects With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease NCT02207829 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Investigate the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of CHF6523 in Healthy and in COPD Subjects NCT04032535 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Non Inferiority of Fixed Combination of Beclomethasone Dipropionate (BDP) + Formoterol Fumarate (FF) + Glycopyrronium Bromide (GB) Versus Combination of Fluticasone Furoate (FlF)/Vilanterol (VI) + Tiotropium Bromide in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT02467452 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.