Oral Mucosal Effects In Adult Smokers Associated With Two Nicotine Lozenge Formulations
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 4% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2017-08-13, after 2017-03-21 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-08-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: myocardialheartinfarctionenrollmentsurgery
Phrases that lowered it: participantshealthythe studycigarettesoral -
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 26.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 36014 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 4901 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 26.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 2.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- nicotine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Single Dose Bioequivalence Study OfTwo Formulations Of Nicotine Lozenges NCT00651352 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- To Assess the Bioequivalence of the 4mg Prototype Mini Nicotine Lozenge to the Reference Product (Nicorette) in Healthy Smokers NCT03543137 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- A Bioequivalence Study of Two Nicotine Lozenges in Fasting Conditions in Healthy Smokers NCT03541044 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- A Bioequivalence Study Between Two Nicotine Replacement Therapies in Adult Healthy Smokers Motivated to Quit. NCT03130179 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- Clinical Study to Assess Bioequivalence Between Nicorette Extra Mint Gum and Nicorette® Mint Gum in Healthy Smokers NCT03259607 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.