E4/DRSP Ovarian Function Inhibition Study
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 4% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-06-08, after 2017-02-07 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-06-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: functionmalignancyrelatedcancerprior
Phrases that lowered it: healthycontainingmgsubjectsto evaluate -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 51.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 7 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 35 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 4 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 7 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 18223 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2066 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 51.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 1.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- drospirenone, estetrol, ethinyl estradiol
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- E4/DRSP Endocrine Function, Metabolic Control and Hemostasis Study NCT02957630 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- E4 FREEDOM (Female Response Concerning Efficacy and Safety of Estetrol/Drospirenone as Oral Contraceptive in a Multicentric Study) - EU/Russia Study NCT02817828 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- E4 FREEDOM (Female Response Concerning Efficacy and Safety of Estetrol/Drospirenone as Oral Contraceptive in a Multicentric Study) - United States/Canada Study NCT02817841 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- Cycle Control and Safety of E2-DRSP NCT00653614 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- Safety, Compliance and Pharmacokinetics of Estetrol Monohydrate/Drospirenone 15/3 mg in Post-menarchal Female Adolescents NCT04792385 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.