A Study to Assess the Analgesic Efficacy and Safety of ASP8062 in Subjects With Fibromyalgia
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 18% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-03-06, after 2017-05-08 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-03-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 27 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 54 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 80 (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 54 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 9.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 27 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study to Assess the Analgesic Efficacy and Safety of ASP0819 in Patients With Fibromyalgia NCT03056690 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
- Treatment of Pain Associated With Fibromyalgia NCT02187159 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
- Treatment of Pain Associated With Fibromyalgia NCT02187471 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
- Treatment of Pain Associated With Fibromyalgia NCT02146430 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of Eslicarbazepine Acetate as Therapy in Subjects With Fibromyalgia NCT01820585 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.