Multiple Ascending Dose Study of MK-5160 in Participants With Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (MK-5160-002)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (816 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-01-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: diagnosiscarcinomastablecancermultiple
  Phrases that lowered it: participantskgthe trialvisitmass
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1179 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 99 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 67.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 125895 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 18718 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Single Ascending Dose Study of MK-1092 in Healthy Participants and in Participants With Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (MK-1092-001) NCT03170544 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Study of MEDI0382 in Combination With Dapagliflozin and Metformin in Overweight/Obese Participants With Type 2 Diabetes NCT03444584 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• Phase II Safety and Efficacy Study of Oral ORMD-0801 in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT02496000 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• Diabetes Study of Linagliptin and Empagliflozin in Children and Adolescents (DINAMO)TM NCT03429543 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Dose-Ranging Study to Evaluate the Glycemic Effects, Safety, and Tolerability of Metformin Delayed Release in Subjects With T2DM NCT02526524 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.