Study of SHR-1210 Versus Investigator's Choice of Chemotherapy for Participants With Advanced Esophageal Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 10% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-05-06, after 2017-05-05 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-05-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: subjects withcelltherapycarcinomain subjects
Phrases that lowered it: vaccinedoseparticipantsfeveropen label -
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 45 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 44 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 9.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 45 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 37946 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 6244 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 94.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 22.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- camrelizumab, docetaxel, irinotecan
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Combination of Radiation Therapy and Anti-PD-1 Antibody SHR-1210 in Treating Patients With Esophageal Cancer NCT03187314 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
- A Study of SHR-1210 in Combination With BP102 in Subjects With Non-squamous NSCLC NCT03666728 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials terminated
- A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Tolerability of Using SHR-1210 by Advanced Solid Tumor Subjects NCT02742935 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- A Study of SHR-1210 in Combination With Pemetrexed and Carboplatin in Subjects With Non-squamous NSCLC NCT03134872 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
- First-line Esophageal Carcinoma Study With Pembrolizumab Plus Chemo vs. Chemo (MK-3475-590/KEYNOTE-590) NCT03189719 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.