S-Equol in Alzheimer's Disease 2 Trial

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (121 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-03-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimertherapycancerto determinechemotherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: participantvisitscreeningclinical trialabnormal
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 52.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 90 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• S-Equol in Alzheimer's Disease (SEAD) Trial NCT02142777 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• Safety and Pharmacokinetic Study of S-Equol in Healthy Volunteers NCT00787007 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of EQU-001 in Healthy Volunteers NCT05004571 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Multi-Dose Safety and Pharmacokinetic Study of S-Equol in Healthy Volunteers NCT00998920 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Elpipodect (MK-8189) Safety and Tolerability in Participants With Alzheimer's Disease With or Without Symptoms of Agitation-Aggression and/or Psychosis (MK-8189-017) NCT05227118 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.