Neratinib and Paclitaxel With or Without Pertuzumab and Trastuzumab Before Combination Chemotherapy in Treating Patients With Metastatic or Locally Advanced Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-05-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ventricularleftsyndromesubjecteffect
  Phrases that lowered it: combinationstudy drugdoseadministrationparticipant
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 27.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 715 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 79.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 357524 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 59682 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 226 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• PTX-200, Paclitaxel, Doxorubicin Hydrochloride, and Cyclophosphamide in Treating Patients With Stage IIB-IV Breast Cancer NCT01697293 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
• Docetaxel, Carboplatin, Trastuzumab, and Lapatinib in Treating Patients With Early Stage Breast Cancer NCT00820872 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Trastuzumab and Pertuzumab or Bevacizumab With Combination Chemotherapy in Treating Patients With Stage II-III Breast Cancer NCT01959490 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Phase II Randomized Trial Evaluating Neoadjuvant Therapy With Neratinib and/or Trastuzumab Followed by Postoperative Trastuzumab in Women With Locally Advanced HER2-positive Breast Cancer NCT01008150 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• Paclitaxel & Cyclophosphamide With or Without Trastuzumab Before Surgery in Treating Previously Untreated Breast Cancer NCT01750073 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.