Apatinib for the Elderly Advanced Gastric Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-06-02, after 2017-06-05 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-06-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 60% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: canceradvancedcarcinomachemotherapyuncontrolled
Phrases that lowered it: patientsefficacyand safetysafety ofelderly -
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 5 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 60 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 5 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 5 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 100% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 60% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- apatinib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Phase III Study of Apatinib Tablets in the Treatment of Advanced or Metastatic Gastric Cancer NCT01512745 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
- Apatinib Versus Placebo as a Third Line Treatment in Patients With Advanced or Metastatic Gastric Cancer NCT00970138 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
- Apatinib in Refractory Colorectal Cancer NCT03190616 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
- Chemotherapy Combined With Apatinib and PD-1 Antibody NCT05025033 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
- Study Of Axitinib In Combination With Cisplatin And Capecitabine In Patients With Advanced Gastric Cancer NCT00842244 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.