Evaluation of PHP-201 Ophthalmic Solution in Patients With Normal Tension Glaucoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 7% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-05-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectmyocardialplacebo controlledinfarctionacute
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetysafety ofsubject whoevaluate theto evaluate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 19 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study Assessing Safety and Efficacy of PG324 Ophthalmic Solution in Patients With Elevated Intraocular Pressure NCT02057575 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Double-masked Study of PG324 Ophthalmic Solution in Patients With Open-angle Glaucoma or Ocular Hypertension NCT02674854 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Reformulated PG324 Ophthalmic Solution for Intraocular Pressure Reduction NCT07082816 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Safety/Efficacy Study: OPA-6566 Ophthalmic Solution in Subjects With Primary Open-Angle Glaucoma or Ocular Hypertension NCT01410188 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Multiple Dose-parallel-group Study of AMA0076 in Patients With Primary Open-Angle Glaucoma or Ocular Hypertension NCT02136940 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.