Repeated Subcutaneous Administration of ABvac40 in Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease Patients
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (544 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2015-07-30, after 2014-01-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-07-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: dsmdisordermajorvisitstable
Phrases that lowered it: mmhgpatients whodiabetesvaccineand safety -
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 85 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 50 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 85 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Safety and Tolerability of AFFITOPE AD03 NCT01309763 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
- Safety and Immunogenicity of Repeated Doses of ABvac40 in Patients With a-MCI or Vm-AD NCT03461276 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
- Safety Study of AADvac1, a Tau Peptide-KLH-Conjugate Active Vaccine to Treat Alzheimer's Disease NCT01850238 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
- 24 Months Safety and Efficacy Study of AADvac1 in Patients With Mild Alzheimer's Disease NCT02579252 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and Immunogenicity of Tau Targeted Vaccines in Participants With Early Alzheimer's Disease NCT04445831 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.