A Study of Pimavanserin for the Treatment of Agitation and Aggression in Subjects With Alzheimer's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-02-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimerpatientcaregiveradtolerability
  Phrases that lowered it: visitdrugweekevaluate thefemale
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 45.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Examine the Safety and Efficacy of Pimavanserin for the Treatment of Agitation and Aggression in Alzheimer's Disease (SERENE) NCT02992132 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials terminated
• A Study of the Safety and Efficacy of Pimavanserin in Patients With Alzheimer's Disease Psychosis NCT02035553 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• A Safety Study of Pimavanserin in Adult and Elderly Subjects Experiencing Neuropsychiatric Symptoms Related to Neurodegenerative Disease NCT03575052 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Extension Study of Pimavanserin in Adult Subjects With Neuropsychiatric Symptoms Related to Neurodegenerative Disease NCT03623321 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Extension Study of Pimavanserin in Subjects With Major Depressive Disorder and Inadequate Response to Antidepressant Treatment NCT04000009 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.