A Proof-of-Mechanism Study to Determine the Effect of Danicopan on C3 Levels in Participants With C3G or IC-MPGN

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-01-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: to determineevidencekeybiopsydetermine whether
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsopen labelthe effecteffect oflimit of
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Keywords listed: 17 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 18 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 16 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 62 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: basic science (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Proof-of-Concept Study of Danicopan for 6 Months of Treatment in Participants With C3 Glomerulopathy (C3G) NCT03369236 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• A Proof of Concept Study for a 12 Month Treatment in Patients With C3G or IC-MPGN Treated With ACH-0144471 NCT03459443 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials terminated
• Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability of BCX9930 in Participants With Either Complement 3 Glomerulopathy (C3G), Immunoglobulin A Nephropathy (IgAN), or Primary Membranous Nephropathy (PMN) NCT05162066 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials terminated
• Controlled Trial Evaluating Avacopan in C3 Glomerulopathy NCT03301467 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• Study of ARO-C3 in Adult Healthy Volunteers and Patients With Complement Mediated Renal Disease NCT05083364 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.