Intermittent Therapy in Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma Patients Treated With Ipilimumab and Nivolumab

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-10-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerkidneypriormetastaticlymphoma
  Phrases that lowered it: sorafenibvaccinedrugdailyweeks
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 25.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 28.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 34 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 167 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 12457 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 86.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Nivolumab and Stereotactic Ablative Radiation Therapy (SAbR) for Metastatic Clear Cell Renal Cell Carcinoma NCT02781506 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials terminated
• Nivolumab in Patients With Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma Who Have Progresses During or After Prior Systemic Anti-angiogenic Regimen NCT03013335 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Study of Front Line Therapy With Nivolumab and Salvage Nivolumab + Ipilimumab in Patients With Advanced Renal Cell Carcinoma NCT03117309 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• Study in Which Therapy is Either Switched to Nivolumab After 3 Months of Treatment or Therapy is Continued With a Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor in Patients With Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma (RCC) and Disease Control NCT02959554 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated
• Tailored ImmunoTherapy Approach With Nivolumab in Subjects With Metastatic or Advanced Renal Cell Carcinoma NCT02917772 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.