Bomedemstat (IMG-7289/MK-3543) in Participants With Myelofibrosis (IMG-7289-CTP-102/MK-3543-002)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (1,462 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-03-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: transplantstemhematopoietichepatitismyelofibrosis
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsopenlabelpharmacodynamicspharmacokinetics
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 9 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Bomedemstat in Participants With Essential Thrombocythemia (IMG-7289-CTP-201/MK-3543-003) NCT04254978 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• A Study of Bomedemstat (IMG-7289/MK-3543) in Participants With Polycythemia Vera (IMG-7289-CTP-203/MK-3543-004) NCT05558696 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• A Phase 1/2 Study of Oral SB1518 in Subjects With Chronic Idiopathic Myelofibrosis NCT00745550 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• A Study to Find the Maximum Tolerated Dose of the Experimental Combination of the Drugs INC424 and BKM120 in Patients With Primary or Secondary Myelofibrosis NCT01730248 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials terminated
• A Phase 1/2 Study of SB1518 for the Treatment of Advanced Myeloid Malignancies NCT00719836 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.