A Bronchoprovocation Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of CSJ117 in Adult Subjects With Mild Atopic Asthma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (355 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-07-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1063 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: multipleplacebosafety tolerabilitydiseasechronic
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmaperiodpharmacokineticsatopicinvestigator
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 171 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Efficacy and Safety of CSJ117 in Patients With Severe Uncontrolled Asthma NCT04410523 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials terminated
• The Study Will Evaluate the Efficacy of AZD5423 in Patients With Mild Asthma Challenged With an Inhaled Allergen NCT01225549 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Double Masked, Placebo Controlled, Single Center, Randomized Clinical Trial to Assess the Safety and Efficacy of Subjects With Mild Asthma Induced by the Bronchial Allergen Challenge (BAC) NCT04728711 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Study of Safety of CSJ117 in Participants With Moderate to Severe Uncontrolled Asthma NCT04946318 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials terminated
• A Clinical Study to Test the Safety, Exposure, and Pharmacodynamic Markers of CSL311 in Patients With Mild-to-moderate Asthma and in Healthy Volunteers NCT04082754 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.