TCH Versus EC-TH as Neoadjuvant Treatment for HER2-Positive Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-11-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancergreater thancarcinomachemotherapycarboplatin
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andsafety ofthe efficacyclinical
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 128561 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 23227 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 11 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 5 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Minus Anthracycline or Short-Term Versus Epirubicin and Cyclophosphamide Followed by Paclitaxel Regimen for Adjuvant Breast Cancer Therapy NCT01314833 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Studying the Benefits of Adjuvant Sequential vs. Combined Taxane Based Chemotherapy, Followed by Different Biological Treatment Strategies in Early, HER2-positive Breast Cancer NCT00670878 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Neoadjuvant 5-fluorouracil, Epirubicin and Cyclophosphamide (FEC) Followed by Weekly Paclitaxel and Trastuzumab in Her2 Positive Breast Cancer NCT01340430 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Paclitaxel and Trastuzumab With or Without Lapatinib in Treating Patients With Stage II or Stage III Breast Cancer That Can Be Removed by Surgery NCT00770809 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• The Synergism Or Long Duration (SOLD) Study NCT00593697 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.