A Multiple Dose Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of BMS-986263 in Healthy Participants

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-11-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: bmsof studyrecurrenttolerability pharmacokineticssafety tolerability
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyvolunteersparticipants90kg
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: screening (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 106 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 564 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 24845 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 74.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 165880 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Randomized, Double Blind Placebo-Controlled, Single Ascending Dose Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of BMS-986166 in Healthy Subjects NCT02790125 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• A Multiple Dose Study to Assess the Safety and Tolerability of BMS-986166 in Healthy Volunteers NCT03038711 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Pharmacokinetics, Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacodynamics of BMS-986189 in Healthy Subjects NCT02739373 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability and Relative Bioavailability Study of BMS-986195 in Healthy Subjects NCT02705989 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Study of BMS-986195 in Healthy Male Subjects NCT03245515 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.