A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of CC-90001 in Subjects With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-12-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: lungfibrosispatienttreatmentlife
  Phrases that lowered it: at screeningsubjectspulmonarymalepharmacokinetics
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 45 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 137 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Characterize the Safety, PK and Biological Activity of CC-930 in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) NCT01203943 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials terminated
• Macitentan Use in an Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis Clinical Study NCT00903331 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Study of TTI-101 in Participants With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis NCT05671835 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• A Study to Test Whether BI 1839100 Improves Cough in People With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis or Progressive Pulmonary Fibrosis NCT06360094 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials terminated
• Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of of HSK44459 in People With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis NCT06764862 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.