Pilot Study on the Infusion of ARI-0001 Cells in Patients With CD19+ Leukemia or Lymphoma Refractory to Therapy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-09-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: leukemiatransplantchronicdonortransplantation
  Phrases that lowered it: diseasesclinical trialantiscreeningpositive
• Primary purpose: other (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 2 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Tolerability, Safety, and Efficacy of an Anti-CD19 CAR-T Product in Patients With B-cell Lymphoproliferative Disorders NCT06705530 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Dose Optimization Trial of CD19 Redirected Autologous T Cells NCT01747486 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• CAR20.19.22 T-cells in Relapsed, Refractory B-cell Malignancies NCT05094206 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials terminated
• Study of Redirected Autologous T Cells Engineered to Contain Anti-CD19 Attached to TCR and 4-1BB Signaling Domains in Patients With Chemotherapy Resistant or Refractory Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia NCT02030847 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• LILRB4 STAR-T Cells in the Treatment of R/R AML/CMML NCT05548088 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.