Vaginal Misoprostol In Management Of First Trimester Missed Abortion.
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 8% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (130 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-06-01, after 2017-07-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-06-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 59.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 214 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 125 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patienttherapyadvancedlong termrecurrent
Phrases that lowered it: suspectedasthmadiseaseshepaticweight
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 20 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 40 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 125 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 214 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 11199 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 855 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 59.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 6.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- misoprostol
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Medical Abortion With Single Daily Dose of Misoprostol NCT03487354 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- Repeated Doses of Misoprostol for Medical Treatment of Missed Miscarriage NCT01615224 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials terminated
- Comparing Buccal and Vaginal Misoprostol in Management of Early Pregnancy Loss NCT02141555 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- Comparison of Vaginal Versus Sublingual Misoprostol in the Treatment of First Trimester Missed Miscarriage NCT04604366 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- Comparison Between Letrozole and Mifepristone in Medical Termination of First Trimester Miscarriages NCT05304273 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.