A Study to Evaluate Whether Macitentan is an Effective and Safe Treatment for Patients With Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction and Pulmonary Vascular Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-03-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placebomay applycriteria mayprotocol definedother protocol
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluatelungpatientsfractionmoderate
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 76.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 12 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 13717 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Treatment of PH With Angiotensin II Receptor Blocker and Neprilysin Inhibitor in HFpEF Patients With CardioMEMS Device NCT04753112 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• A Study of Mavacamten in Participants With HFpEF and Elevation of NT-proBNP With or Without Elevation of cTnT NCT04766892 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• A Study of LY3540378 in Participants With Worsening Chronic Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction (HFpEF) NCT05592275 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• Study of HS135 in Obese Patients With Pulmonary Hypertension and Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction NCT06581159 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated
• Ranolazine in Diastolic Heart Failure NCT01163734 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.