Multiple Ascending Doses of Rozibafusp Alfa (AMG 570) in Adults With Rheumatoid Arthritis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (238 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-06-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: multiplediseaseascendingtolerabilityplacebo controlled
  Phrases that lowered it: raarthritisrheumatoidasthmaevaluate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 57 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 477 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Brodalumab (AMG 827) in Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) Participants With Inadequate Response to Methotrexate NCT00950989 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Safety, PK, PD and Efficacy of AMG 827 in Adults With Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT00771030 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess the Safety and Tolerability of MEDI5117 in Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients NCT01559103 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials terminated
• (C2013-0302) Safety and Efficacy of Escalating Doses of SAN-300 in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT02047604 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of ASP015K in Moderate to Severe Rheumatoid Arthritis Subjects Who Have Had an Inadequate Response to Methotrexate NCT01554696 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.