Hookah Smoking, Carbon Monoxide, and Coronary Endothelial Function
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 5% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (918 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2020-10-15, after 2017-08-15 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-10-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 24.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: diabetesabstinencepregnancynonglucose
Phrases that lowered it: mmhgsmokersimpairment2090 -
Primary purpose: other (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 59.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 28 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 35105 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- other (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 21 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 49 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 74 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 24.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 28 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 225602 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 35105 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 59.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 7.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ascorbic acid, carbon monoxide, tadalafil
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Effects of Carbon Monoxide Breathing on Blood Vessel Function NCT03067701 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Comparison of Hookah and Cigarette Smoking NCT00992550 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- Long Term Nitric Oxide Bioavailability on Vascular Health in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease NCT02774226 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
- Vascular Effects of a Single Bout of Electronic Cigarette Use NCT03209661 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- Anti-platelet Therapy in the Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease in Patients With COPD (APPLE-COPD: ICON 2) NCT03487406 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.