IGF-MTX Conjugate in the Treatment of Myelodysplastic Syndrome

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 29% of the time (655 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientuncontrolledtherapyof studyprior
  Phrases that lowered it: methotrexatesafety ofmtxamlscreening
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 212048 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 63.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 39391 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Insulin-like Growth Factor (IGF)-Methotrexate Conjugate in the Treatment of Advanced Tumors Expressing IGF-1R NCT02045368 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• A Study of the Tumor-targeting Human F16IL2 Monoclonal Antibody-cytokine Fusion Protein in Combination With Very Low-dose Cytarabine in Patients With AML Relapse After Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation NCT02957032 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• Vincristine Sulfate Liposome Injection (Marqibo®) in Combination With UK ALL R3 Induction Chemotherapy NCT02879643 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Flotetuzumab for Relapsed Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) and Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) Following Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation (Allo-HCT) NCT04582864 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated
• Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of Milademetan Alone and With 5-Azacitidine (AZA) in Acute Myelogenous Leukemia (AML) or High-Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) NCT02319369 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.