Topiramate and Prolonged Exposure

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 7% of the time (56 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 155 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 356 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: traumaeffectiveimprovedisorderpost
  Phrases that lowered it: the aimaim ofindividualsthe upperthe investigator
• Sponsor type: government (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 5630 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 66.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• The Effect of NK1R Antagonism on Alcohol Craving and PTSD Symptoms in Alcohol Dependent Patients With PTSD NCT00896038 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• New Treatment for Alcohol and Nicotine Dependence NCT01182766 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• Combining Medications for the Treatment of Alcohol Dependence: An Inpatient Preliminary Study NCT00769158 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Effects of Ethanol on the Pharmacokinetics of PT-150 (Formerly ORG34517) (PT150 PK Study) NCT04331288 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Clinical Trial to Evaluate the Safety of PT150 (Formerly ORG34517) When it is Taken Concurrently With Alcohol NCT03548714 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.