Evaluation of Innovative Tools in Development of Antibiotics
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 3% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (340 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-07-31, after 2016-05-29 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: determinethe safetythe subjectidentifiedand dated
Phrases that lowered it: healthymmhgprescriptionscreeningsingle dose -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: other (lowers risk) · Design
-
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 67 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- other (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 250 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 8.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 67 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 39716 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 7103 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 84.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 14.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ciprofloxacin, imipenem
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study to Characterize Lung Deposition, Pharmacokinetics, Safety and Tolerability of Single Inhalations of Radiolabeled Ciprofloxacin Dry Powder in Healthy Subjects and Patients With Chronic Lung Diseases NCT01538667 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- Study in COPD (Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease) Subjects to Investigate Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of Ciprofloxacin After Single Dose Inhalations of 50 mg and 75 mg Ciprofloxacin Inhalation Powder NCT01168895 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- Plasma Pharmacokinetics (PK) & Lung Penetration of Ceftolozane/Tazobactam in Participants With Pneumonia (MK-7625A-007) NCT02387372 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
- Cefiderocol Concentrations in the Lungs of Hospitalized Patients With Bacterial Pneumonia NCT03862040 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials terminated
- Evaluation of the Concentration of ANT3310 and Meropenem in the Lung in Healthy Adult Participants NCT06916156 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.