A Study Evaluating the Safety and Efficacy of Upadacitinib in Adults With Active Ankylosing Spondylitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (103 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-02-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: arthritisstabledose ofdiseaseopioid
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantscountuln28
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 101 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 117 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of Upadacitinib in Adults With Axial Spondyloarthritis NCT04169373 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of Jaktinib in Subjects With Active Ankylosing Spondylitis(AS) NCT05861102 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3 Study to Compare Upadacitinib to Abatacept in Subjects With Rheumatoid Arthritis on Stable Dose of Conventional Synthetic Disease- Modifying Antirheumatic Drugs (csDMARDs) Who Have an Inadequate Response or Intolerance to Biologic DMARDs NCT03086343 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Ustekinumab in the Treatment of Anti-TNFα Naive Participants With Active Radiographic Axial Spondyloarthritis NCT02437162 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Compare Upadacitinib (ABT-494) Monotherapy to Methotrexate (MTX) Monotherapy in Adults With Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) Who Have Not Previously Taken Methotrexate NCT02706873 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.