A Study of ALKS 5461 for Treatment Refractory Major Depressive Disorder (MDD)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (422 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-03-05, after 2017-06-12 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-03-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: diagnosismay applycriteria mayprimaryopioid
Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andsafety ofkgbody mass -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 16 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor's past trials: 50 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 70 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 50 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 16 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study to Evaluate ALKS 5461 in Subjects With Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) NCT01500200 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
- A Long Term Study of ALKS 5461 in the Treatment of Refractory Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) NCT03610048 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials terminated
- A Study of ALKS 5461 for the Treatment of Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) - FORWARD-5 Study NCT02218008 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- A Study of ALKS 5461 for the Treatment of Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) - the FORWARD-4 Study NCT02158533 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- A Study of ALKS 5461 for the Treatment of Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) - the FORWARD-3 Study NCT02158546 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.