First-in-human Study of ATR Inhibitor BAY1895344 in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors and Lymphomas

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-09-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: celltransplantbrainstemdose of
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsevaluate theapplyto evaluategeneral
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 159 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 742 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of ATG-018 (ATR Inhibitor) Treatment in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors and Hematological Malignancies NCT05338346 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials terminated
• SG2501 Safety Study in Subjects with Relapsed or Refractory Hematological Malignancies and Lymphoma. NCT05293912 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials terminated
• Avelumab, Utomilumab, Rituximab, Ibrutinib, and Combination Chemotherapy in Treating Patients With Relapsed or Refractory Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma or Mantle Cell Lymphoma NCT03440567 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
• AZD4573 in Novel Combinations With Anti-cancer Agents in Patients With Advanced Blood Cancer NCT04630756 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• BR101801 in Adult Patients With Advanced Hematologic Malignancies(Phase I) NCT04018248 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.