Intranasal Oxytocin vs. Placebo for the Treatment of Hyperphagia in Prader-Willi Syndrome

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-08-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationreceivingstableplaceboprior
  Phrases that lowered it: resultsagedhealthtype diabetesphysical
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 5 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 17 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 88.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Oxytocin vs. Placebo for the Treatment Hyperphagia in Children and Adolescents With Prader-Willi Syndrome NCT02629991 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Oxytocin Trial in Prader-Willi Syndrome NCT02013258 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• Effect of Intranasal Oxytocin on Dysphagia in Children and Adolescents With Prader-Willi Syndrome NCT05298085 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• Intranasal Oxytocin for Infants With Prader-Willi Syndrome NCT03245762 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• Oxytocin Treatment in Neonates and Infants With Prader-Willi Syndrome NCT04283578 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.